"Betting closes 12 00 Wednesday..."

That isn't clear. 12.00 BST or 12.00 GMT? I went on Sanc Sunday to see how my game had gone and they hadn't run. It took a few moments to realise it wasn't yet 12.00 GMT. It's even worse cone October as I've got used to 1 PM kickoffs and end up NMRing. And no, I'm not saying the kickoffs should stay at 3 PM throughout the year, for a start deadlines are set by GMT so Commishes would have to check when we change and that could cause errors.

There is a countdown nearer the deadlines anyway though I'm not sure when that kicks in. So having a "deadlines is 3 hours before kick off" makes perfect sense to me. I'm not sure why folk seem to be having a go at Andy. Like many of us he has a life outside of SESL. And he's Commish of OASL which is in pre-season.  

Betting closes 12:00 Wed 2nd April 2025

45 match deadlines so far this season had kicked off 15:00 hrs

15 minus 12 is 3 hours.   (Today was 4 hours different.)  

At 14:15 the MOT bet is said not to have been made when betting was closed.

Is it fair to say MOT submitted bet over 2 hours and 15 minutes late?

What time did you place MOT bet? 

And you knew you were more than 2 hours late.

You were likely sleeping at 12 noon UK time as you suggest you live abroad. 

You are frustrated you never placed bet earlier in week.   

Had your bet lost today this maybe wouldn't be an issue.

You will have last laugh when you lift Div 1 title in a couple of weeks (kick off 15:00 GMT)

10 goals MOT have scored vs ARB this season in the league, and conceeded just 1 goal.

Focus on that positive Andy.

Your blog highlights the exact issue. It is hard to track what time kickoff is from abroad since our clocks changing do not mirror GMT. Knowing when deadlines change from being shorter and longer is hard to do. I am suggesting that, since we have a big clock before matches that counts down the time until kickoff...that we use that clock. Makes it much easier when it reads "predictions due 3 hours before kickoff" than needing to go to Google and do time zone conversions every week.

I am not looking for sympathy or credit for betting. I am requesting a small tweak to the format that hurts nobody while helping those of us not on UK time.

Front page states at poll bet area :-

"Betting closes 12:00 Wed 2nd April 2025

when 50k deducted from each team betting"

Matches are always 3pm.  Ironically 4pm today UK.

Sympathy Andrew, but you had 6 days to bet but waited until after 2.15pm today.  It's a shame, but this occasion it's on you buddy, sorry.

Sorry, gents. I think you are both misunderstanding my blog - I'm not asking for my bet to be counted. I'm asking for the deadline to be clarified for people who are not on UK time.

Mark asked me to cover some weeks for him, and asked if I'd wait till at least 1 hour AFTER the noon deadline to allow for some overseas differences.

Dave is right that entries are NOT time stamped so an entry needs to be put in at some point to close off entries. 
I closed it off today around 2-15pm. 
 

Problem is we can't wait till 3-59pm (minute before the game started) as monies should be deducted BEFORE the start of play - and you can't expect Mark to sit with a stop watch. 
I sympathise with Andy but the noon deadline (and if you are on GMT you get an extra hour) is clear for all and other managers would spot an entry AFTER the closure.

Sorry, Andy. 😟

Issue came up once before and problem was bets are not time stamped.  Therefore there is no audit trail when MOT placed bet.  Someone could bet a minute after the match is played and unless adjudicator was online nearly constantly to monitor how would they know.

The bet money was deducted 3.30pm UK time per blog (no idea if that GMT or an hour out).  Either way, MOT posted after David Blairs "no more betting message" on poll vote page therefore it may be assumed you were a few hours after the 12 noon deadline.

Perhaps. Presumed. No one is sure.  But almost certainly after the published deadline.

Team   xP
MOT    66,4
FRA    47,7
ARB    46,1
CLY    42,3
STE    37,7
DEE    36,3
SRA    35,7
DUM    35,5
COW    34,5
LIV    34,5
HAM    32,9
HEA    30,9
RR     30,4
CB     24,1
CEL    18,9
STJ    17,4

The big (and only) news is FRA now claiming best of the rest #2.
Everything else basically unchanged - including the very tight middle of the pack, #5 to #13.
STJ and CEL are fighting for (against?) the wooden spoon - not that they probably care too much about it.

Team   Luck
HEA    +12,1   
ARB    +10,9   
STE    +6,3   
STJ    +4,6   
LIV    +4,5   
HAM    +4,1   
DEE    +3,7   
COW    +0,5   
CLY    -1,3   
FRA    -1,7   
SRA    -1,7   
CB     -2,1   
RR     -2,4   
DUM    -2,5   
CEL    -6,9   
MOT    -8,4   

Still the same two horse race.
With just 8.8 pts between #3 and #14 actually much more balanced than expected.

Can we change the betting wording on the polls to be formatted "poll closes X hours before kickoff"? This is twice I've put in my bet over an hour before kickoff and not had it counted, and I'm not sure when 12:00 is relative to the kickoff, especially with time changes. I usually can get bets in the day before, but if not I'd like to still be able to bet

52    Celtic (D.Denaro) 
53    Celtic (D.Denaro)
54    Celtic (B.Nicholl)
55    St Johnstone (M.Creasey) 
56    St Johnstone (M.Creasey) 
57    Clyde (R.Cini)

I ignored 57!! Sorry........

The following teams receive Betting cup match winning through SESL Cup Tie ARB v INV 2/4/2025:
ANN(150) ARB(50) COW(50) DEV(150) DUM(150) DEE(50) DUU(50) EDI(50) ELG(50) FRA(50) HEA(150) INV(150) LIV(150) PT(150) SRA(50)

The following teams receive Betting on cup match through SESL Cup tie ARB v INV 2/4/25:
ALB(-50) ANN(-50) ARB(-50) COW(-50) DEV(-50) DUM(-50) DEE(-50) DUU(-50) EDI(-50) ELG(-50) FAL(-50) FRA(-50) HEA(-50) HIB(-50) INV(-50) LIV(-50) PT(-50) SRA(-50)

Maybe an April Fool or an in-joke from Andrew, but I don't follow the "winners from the last 5 seasons doomed at foot of Div 1"

Intrigued what has caused my brain fart?

CLY are 6th, HEA 5th, ARB 2nd. Doomed?

Granted STJ and CEL having a horlicks of a sad season.

Interesting that all the winners from the last 5 seasons are looking doomed at the bottom of Div One. Is it something about winning the title perhaps? Fortunately, SRA will never have to worry about this rather difficult side effect of being the best.

Tm    Jk JDs
ARB   11    6
LIV    9    6
HEA    8    6
STJ    7    6
COW    7    4
CLY    6    3
SRA    6    2
DEE    6    1
FRA    6    0
MOT    5    1
STE    4    0
HAM    3    2
CB     3    1
RR     3    0
DUM    2    2
CEL    2    2

A disappointing week for leader ARB - no junk played at all.
With 2 weeks to go they even have to manage a last ditch effort by this week's double junk winner LIV.
Only the top 5 now with a (theoretical) chance to win the trophy.

Thanks for the warning - when is it?? 😉😉

I think games stay at 3pm but could be wrong - I know they were kept at 3pm recently but that was to help with reviews, and there aren't any of them now. 
Just need to check the top of the page after tomorrow's fixtures - that'll tell you. 

An extra hour to get orders in!  Hooray!!

In the UK games kick off at 4 PM (and 5 PM Saturday).

With clock change in UK yesterday, how does that affect Sesl match kick offs?

2pm in real time?  4pm maybe?  

 Or still 3pm? 🤔

I laughed out loud to your last sentence! 

Hope you on the mend soon Paul.

You can thank a splendid spreadsheet (thanks, Alan) and my ill health for the speed of the PL reports.  

About a month or so ago I woke up with double vision and although it is improving I still can't drive, so am spending much time at home.  I used to watch Winchester FC of a Saturday afternoon, but seeind one version of them is quite enough, seeing two would be extremely depressing.

Impressed at speed results were posted 

👏

The following teams receive an MVP bonus after match 45:
Motherwell - MVP #7: 25k (WDw)
Livingston - MVP #6: 25k (Wwd)
Albion Rovers - MVP #4: 1 CP (wWW)
Falkirk - MVP #4: 1 CP (WwW)

The following teams receive Prediction League through Round 8 29/3/25:
HEA(100)

Round 8 of the prediction league was a low-scoring affair, with an average score of 3.92 from 24 entries.  Stranraer's win at Arbroath was only predicted by two managers, and the draw between Clydebank and Dumbarton by three.  At the other end of the scale, everyone expected Fraserburgh to beat Raith Rovers, with seven managers picking this as their banker. 

There was a lone winner this week, Dave at Hearts netting the 100k for his six points.

It's looking like a two-horse race between Dundee and East Fife at this stage.  We'll be dropping the lowest score next week - but both the leaders have a three to drop so it could be very tight.

Next Saturday we move to Division 2 for the penultimate round.  I will post the entry form on the Notebook shortly.

The following teams receive an MVP bonus after match 44:
Peterhead - MVP #4: 1 CP (wwD)
Hibernian - MVP #5: 25k (WwD)
East Fife - MVP #4: 1 CP (wWd)
Saint Mirren - MVP #4: 1 CP (wWd)

Bournemouth 2-1 Ipswich Town

Arsenal 3-0 Fulham

Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest 2-1 Man United

Wolves 1-1 West Ham

Chelsea 3-2 Tottenham

Man City 2-0 Leicester City

Newcastle 1-1 Brentford

Southampton 1-1 Crystal Palace

Liverpool 2 - 0 Everton

When I inherited the prediction league it was a rule and we kept it for a long time. And then I think Roy raised it one season and there was a unaniomous agreement that if you throw a PL game you are missing the point completely, hence it was removed. 

I've certainly done it a time or two since the rule was changed. Have even bet on myself to lose, knowing we needed to rest players...and then lost that prediction while managing a draw anyway. Don't think a point or two in the prediction league is worth risking a blowout or anything of the sort, so I doubt anyone would truly abuse the system. Even if they did, I'm not sure I'd lose much sleep over it. The game already works on an honor system that nobody is playing while throwing matches for their mates whenever they face each other. No use solving a problem that doesn't exist, in my opinion. If it becomes a problem, can always be re-evaluated then

Betting on one's own team. That was the rule but I'm glad it was changed, as it was silly to have to vote for your own team when it was obvious you couldn't gain a point. I like the current set up - even voted for my team to draw or lose and have no problem other clubs seeing how I see the game going. 💰💰

The current rule is of course open to abuse but hopefully no manager would stoop so low as to chuck a match to win the PL

I do check when manager's teams are up for prediction which way they go. 

But yes I was happy when the rule changed. A couple of years ago Stewart at Rangers was flying high in division one and my Stirling were struggling. I reckon I lost about 5 points in the prediction league that season saying Stirling were going to win whereas Stewart's Rangers won most of their games and the prediction league.

Betting on one's own team. That was the rule but I'm glad it was changed, as it was silly to have to vote for your own team when it was obvious you couldn't gain a point. I like the current set up - even voted for my team to draw or lose and have no problem other clubs seeing how I see the game going. 💰💰

A reminder that the PL runs tomorrow, only 8 entrants so far.

And Cameron, there used to be a rule that you had to predict your own team to win.  Not sure when or why this was changed.  I don't think the current rule has ever been abused, though.

• You are permitted to predict any result for your own team

Curious at this rule.

Not a complaint.

Has there ever been concern a team flung a match for prediction point, or two?  Highly unlikely .

HEA sends 905k, 10 TP to PT for Alan Rough (0/17 GK)

HEA sends Craig Gordon (5/19 GK) to DFA for 130k

CEL sends 400k, 15 TP, Andy Robertson (5/7 DF) to BRE for Lewis Martin (0/20 SD)

CEL sends 3 TP to EDI for 270k

PET sends 200k to CEL for 2 TP

Team	xP
MOT	60,8
ARB	45,9
FRA	42,9
CLY	39,6
DEE	36,1
STE	33,7
COW	32,4
DUM	32,0
SRA	31,7
HAM	29,4
LIV	28,9
HEA	28,5
RR	28,3
CB	22,0
CEL	18,1
STJ	16,6

The top ranks seem to consolidate.
Still a very tight race between #6 and #13 with just 5 pts between them.

HEA back at the top - after ARB was slightly unlucky vs STE.
The MOT-ARB gap is closing, now only 17.9 pts.

I've occasionally mentioned that the luck and xP table calculations are static.
The main problem is that I have no access to the actual orders, e.g. I do not know if substitutions are conditional or fixed.
Therefore - as discussed recently - "bench strength" is not accounted correctly.

Sample HEA vs DUM:
Until min 60 easily dominated by DUM, 3-0 lead at 3.0-1.6 xG.
But in min 60 DUM went into Stall with their SL3 GK.
2 ways to count this:
- planned switch => massive advantages for HEA in the remaining 30 mins, thus 1.2 xP both
- conditional switch at 3 goal lead => 2.0 xP for DUM, since they would not have switched if not leading big

I chose variant 2, but this case shows the problems and limits of this approach.

Team	Junk	JDs
ARB	11	6
LIV	7	6
HEA	7	6
STJ	7	6
COW	7	4
SRA	6	2
DEE	6	1
FRA	6	0
CLY	5	2
MOT	5	1
STE	4	0
CEL	2	2
HAM	2	1
RR	2	0
CB	2	0
DUM	1	1

It's lonely at the top. ARB may even be disappointed this week - they faced only one 30+% lineup.
The distribution is developing towards a bathtub curve. Most teams are by now either in the "get junk" or "get no junk" bucket.

Bournemouth 3 - 1 Ipswich Town

Arsenal 2 - 1 Fulham

Brighton 2 - 2 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest 2 - 0 Man. United

Wolves 1 - 1 West Ham

Chelsea 1 - 1 Tottenham

Man. City 5 - 1 Leicester City

Newcastle 2 - 1 Brentford

Southampton 1 - 3 Crystal Palace

Liverpool 2 - 1 Everton

RR sends 375k to EST for 4 TP

RAN sends 2 CP to EST for 2 TP

"Reminder: trade window closes 28 March 2025"

who is buying?

who is selling?

Bournemouth 1 - 0 Ipswich Town
Arsenal     2 - 0 Fulham
Brighton    2 - 1 Aston Villa
Notting For 0 - 1 Man. United
Wolves      1 - 0 West Ham
Chelsea     2 - 1 Tottenham
Man. City   4 - 0 Leicester City
Newcastle   2 - 2 Brentford
Southampton 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Liverpool   4 - 0 Everton

Bournemouth 3 - 0 Ipswich Town

Arsenal 2 - 0 Fulham

Brighton 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Man. United

Wolves 1 - 1 West Ham

Chelsea 2 - 1 Tottenham

Man. City 4 - 0 Leicester City

Newcastle 0 - 2 Brentford

Southampton 1 - 3 Crystal Palace

Liverpool 2 - 1 Everton

Bournemouth 3 - 1 Ipswich Town

Arsenal 2 - 1 Fulham

Brighton 1 - 1 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Man. United

Wolves 1 - 3 West Ham

Chelsea 2 - 0 Tottenham

Man. City 4 - 1 Leicester City

Newcastle 1 - 1 Brentford

Southampton 0 - 3 Crystal Palace

Liverpool 3 - 1 Everton

The following teams receive Betting cup match winning through Guessing winner in SESL Cup tie DEE v DUM 25th March:
DEV(100) DEE(100) DUU(100) EDI(100) ELG(100) FAL(100) HIB(100) KIL(100) MOT(100)

Predictios for next midweek league games.

We are still currently completing the international break and then we have FA cup games this weekend.

But from next Tuesday round 30 of the league begins.

Bournemouth 2 - 0 Ipswich Town

Arsenal 2 - 0 Fulham

Brighton 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Man. United

Wolves 2 - 1 West Ham

Chelsea 2 - 1 Tottenham

Man. City 3 - 0 Leicester City

Newcastle 2 - 1 Brentford

Southampton 0 - 2 Crystal Palace

Liverpool 2 - 0 Everton

The following teams receive Betting on cup match through SESL Cup Tie DEE v DUM 26th March:
ALB(-50) ANN(-50) COW(-50) DEV(-50) DUM(-50) DEE(-50) DUU(-50) EF(-50) EDI(-50) ELG(-50) FAL(-50) FRA(-50) HEA(-50) HIB(-50) INV(-50) KIL(-50) LIV(-50) MOT(-50) PT(-50) SRA(-50)

STI sends 100k to STE for Jorrel Hato (5/9 DF), Cambodia (6/10 MF)

MOT sends 1 TP to SRA for 95k

STI sends 1 TP to MOT for Sean OHannigain (6/14 FW)

MOT sends 190k to EST for 2 TP

please feel free to make an offer. happy to swap for CP

.....have asked CEL but no response so far........price might go down by Friday!!

Try CEL Stephen.

They probably need shift 10 TP before Friday, or when pre season TP allocated CEL may lose anything above 10 TP left at season end (due to maximum 50 rule)

Anyone got 2 TP to sell? 

Roll up roll up

The following teams receive Participation Bonus through Participation Bonus Thru Mar 23rd:
ALO(10) AYR(25) COW(5) DUM(20) DEE(50) EF(50) EDI(30) FAL(20) HIB(25) LIV(10) MOT(50) PT(10) QP(20) ROS(20) STE(20) SRA(40)

ROS sends 3 TP to MOT for 280k

Delighted with the win, money is burning a whole in our pocket keen to spend it on some lovely CP if anyone has some spare?

ALB sends 2 TP to RAN for 2 CP

SRAs long queue of debtors were kept from the doors on Sunday with the emergency $33k payment for winning the predictions. Monday morning we find that the Wolves have returned overnight and are baying outside the corrigated iron gates howling for $$$. We have already sold the grass cuttings (currently our only growing income) and press ganged the ground staff to sea (working the ferry). Utter dispair.....it looks like even the Chairman's Roller will have to be auctioned......

No more errors, please! I'm losing points by the day as my score moves unstoppably towards zero.

Leons Deveronvale flying the flag for Division 3 here.

GL mate.

Thanks to Alan at COW for pointing this out....prize money for the "non-drop" round is 200k, lucky old Nairn!

The following teams receive Prediction League through Round 7 (200k prize):
NAI(100)

The following teams receive Prediction League through Round 7 22/3/25:
EF(-33) HIB(-33) NAI(100) SRA(-33)

Thanks to William at EDI, here are the corrected results (PET v INV was a draw).  It would be nice to think that there are now no mistakes but do point them out if you see any and want me to despise you forever.

Nairn become the overall winners, congratulations to Richard who earns 100k, I'll reverse the prze money allocated incorreectly

Thanks to William at EDI who has pointed out an error I've made in the Round 7 results.  I'll be posting a corrected version shortly

The following teams receive Prediction League through Round 7 22/3/25:
EF(33) HIB(33) SRA(33)

BRE sends Mawuli Mensah (4/21 MF) to AI for 4 TP

LIV sends John Lennon (4/7 DF), Lewis Ferguson (4/16 MF) to AI for 3 TP

There were 25 entries for the "can't drop" round, and a couple of easy matches in there - home wins for Fraserburgh and Deveronvale both predicted by 96% of entrants, accounting for 72% of banker selection.  The other matches were much trickier, with a couple of draws to make life difficult.

Three teams managed six points, so that's 33k each to Paul at East Fife, David at Hibs and Andrew at Stranraer.

Round 8 is next Saturday and I will be posting fixtures on the Notebook very soon.

The following teams receive an MVP bonus after match 42:
Dundee FC - MVP #8: 25k (wDW)
Clydebank - MVP #1: 1 TP + 25k (wwD)
Elgin City - MVP #7: 25k (dWw)
Edinburgh City - MVP #6: 25k (WwW)

If you ever feel hard done by, like I did today, then take a look at STI vs QP.

0.7 and 0.8 percent shot chance for QP, who were stalling, produced 3 shots and an offside.

9.5 and lower percent for STI did produce 7 shots but 3 of them went to their worst MF so they only got 4 on target.

The following teams receive an MVP bonus after match 41:
Livingston - MVP #5: 25k (wwW)
Motherwell - MVP #6: 25k (WdW)
Dumbarton - MVP #4: 1 CP (wWW)
Albion Rovers - MVP #3: 1 TP (wWw)
Partick Thistle - MVP #1: 1 TP + 25k (WwD)
Deveronvale - MVP #5: 25k (WwW)

This is your final reminder, unless it posts twice.  Only seven entries so far.

The following teams receive Physio Boost through :
AYR(-80) COW(-80)