If you have a better team then you are 'likely' to have a better chance of winning. Does it follow then that you are also likely to be more prone to freak results?

If you take it to extremes then consider the worst team in SESL. If they are always the worst of the two teams in any given match then they can only win by a freak result.

Likewise, if your team has better stats at the start of every match you will only lose to freak results.

However, there is more to it than that.

There are some other factors to consider. Who, in your team, gets allocated the shots. If all your 10 shots fall to DFs or MFs that don't have their shooting boots on then you will miss the target more often and the GK will save more often. Particularly if the opposition GK is decent. (don't get me started on GKs)

Generally I like to get my shot chance as high as possible so I like to play with WGs. They add so much more to the chance of a shot that any other position. Others like to have big FWs. They might not add to the shot chance but if they get a shot then they are more likely to score. I'm not a fan of the big FWs method but each to their own.

Anyway, what this means is that sometimes, actually quite often, my team has a bigger chance of a shot but still gets beaten. It's infuriating but I have paid my money and taken my chance.

There are other factors too, like the SL of the GK facing the shots and the one that often gets overlooked as it's rarely mentioned, the number of attacks your team has. This is different to shot chance but you have to have a successful attack before you get a shot. In the commentary you will see things like - Hatchetman stops the intruder at the gate. That was an attack that came to nothing. Your team might well be creating more attacks but these are being thwarted. Just something else to consider.

As for real life, I have witnessed freak results many times. The worst/best was watching my team at home when they weren't very good (most seasons) but they were a cut above the opposition this day. The away team never troubled our keeper but in the second half a defender passed the ball back to him. He looked up to see where he was going to play the ball and in doing so took his eye of the ball which slipped under his foot and rolled into the net. We lost 1-0 that day.