Arsenal 2 - 1 Everton

Brentford 2 - 2 Newcastle

Brighton 2 - 0 Man. United

Burnley 1 - 3 Nottingham Forest

Chelsea 1 - 1 Bournemouth

Crystal Palace 3 - 1 Aston Villa

Liverpool 4 - 0 Wolves

Luton Town 1 - 3 Fulham

Man. City 3 - 2 West Ham

Sheffield United 0 - 3 Tottenham

I remember, as a child, getting my first game of Cluedo and playing it with my family.  After a while someone commented that we all seemed to be getting low dice rolls.  And we were....and then we realised that the box had included a D3 rather than a D6....

But Andrew!  You are forgetting that there is a 1 in 300m chance of being killed by a shark or on a fairground ride so that skews the odds considerably

Steve, 

I have only ever dabbled in stats but one of my sons is a statistics lecturer at Southampton Uni - I'm happy to ask his advice on this, though there may be SESL players equally qualified of course.

But I think it would be sound advice for you to record the base data unadulterated and I think there are three columns...Shot chance shown on viewer / number of minutes that chance displayed / number of shots.  Then we can process that in whatever way experts may advise.

Dave, you say, "In the match viewer - when watching the commentary line by line - there it has an accurate shot chance % minute by minute that seems reasonable when I've watched Viewer." 

I can't say that I see much correlation between shot chance and actual shots there - still seems to be a lot of variation to me.

Eduard,

I have the same feeling as you, that there is something awry with the match mechanism.  I don't think that the shot chance deisplayed in the viewer corresponds to what the match engine is doing.  Or maybe the random number generator is skewed in some way, possibly generating more high and low random numbers than it should.

But in a way this doesn't matter because I don't think the match engine is biased in favour of any particular teams.  There are some freak results, yes, but they can be freak in your favour just as much as they are freak against you.  It doesn't feel like that, of course, but that's human nature.

Over time, good managers will find themselves at the top regardless of SESL's eccentricities..

Andrew, I agree, its scary up there, let's give them independence and be done with it....

ooh yes, let's replace SRA and make Andrew manager of the team who stuffed them!

Brighton 1 - 1 Chelsea

Man. United 1 - 3 Newcastle

Tottenham 0 - 2 Man. City

Bournemouth 1 - 1 Brentford

Aston Villa 1 - 2 Liverpool

Everton 3 - 0 Sheffield United

Fulham 1 - 2 Man. City

Man. United 0 - 3 Arsenal

Newcastle 2 - 1 Brighton

Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Chelsea

Tottenham 3 - 0 Burnley

West Ham 2 - 2 Luton Town

Wolves 1 - 2 Crystal Palace

Steve, there is no such thing in statistical theory as the law of averages, whereas there is a law of large numbers, as Eduard mentions.

I have considered trying to do some statistical analysis on events in SESL to see whether there is a significant difference between what might be expected and what actually happens...but I don't think that, even if likely errors are identified, anyone can change the hard coding, so really we just have to live with what we have, I think.