Team   xP
MOT    66,4
FRA    47,7
ARB    46,1
CLY    42,3
STE    37,7
DEE    36,3
SRA    35,7
DUM    35,5
COW    34,5
LIV    34,5
HAM    32,9
HEA    30,9
RR     30,4
CB     24,1
CEL    18,9
STJ    17,4

The big (and only) news is FRA now claiming best of the rest #2.
Everything else basically unchanged - including the very tight middle of the pack, #5 to #13.
STJ and CEL are fighting for (against?) the wooden spoon - not that they probably care too much about it.

Team   Luck
HEA    +12,1   
ARB    +10,9   
STE    +6,3   
STJ    +4,6   
LIV    +4,5   
HAM    +4,1   
DEE    +3,7   
COW    +0,5   
CLY    -1,3   
FRA    -1,7   
SRA    -1,7   
CB     -2,1   
RR     -2,4   
DUM    -2,5   
CEL    -6,9   
MOT    -8,4   

Still the same two horse race.
With just 8.8 pts between #3 and #14 actually much more balanced than expected.

Tm    Jk JDs
ARB   11    6
LIV    9    6
HEA    8    6
STJ    7    6
COW    7    4
CLY    6    3
SRA    6    2
DEE    6    1
FRA    6    0
MOT    5    1
STE    4    0
HAM    3    2
CB     3    1
RR     3    0
DUM    2    2
CEL    2    2

A disappointing week for leader ARB - no junk played at all.
With 2 weeks to go they even have to manage a last ditch effort by this week's double junk winner LIV.
Only the top 5 now with a (theoretical) chance to win the trophy.

Team	xP
MOT	60,8
ARB	45,9
FRA	42,9
CLY	39,6
DEE	36,1
STE	33,7
COW	32,4
DUM	32,0
SRA	31,7
HAM	29,4
LIV	28,9
HEA	28,5
RR	28,3
CB	22,0
CEL	18,1
STJ	16,6

The top ranks seem to consolidate.
Still a very tight race between #6 and #13 with just 5 pts between them.

HEA back at the top - after ARB was slightly unlucky vs STE.
The MOT-ARB gap is closing, now only 17.9 pts.

I've occasionally mentioned that the luck and xP table calculations are static.
The main problem is that I have no access to the actual orders, e.g. I do not know if substitutions are conditional or fixed.
Therefore - as discussed recently - "bench strength" is not accounted correctly.

Sample HEA vs DUM:
Until min 60 easily dominated by DUM, 3-0 lead at 3.0-1.6 xG.
But in min 60 DUM went into Stall with their SL3 GK.
2 ways to count this:
- planned switch => massive advantages for HEA in the remaining 30 mins, thus 1.2 xP both
- conditional switch at 3 goal lead => 2.0 xP for DUM, since they would not have switched if not leading big

I chose variant 2, but this case shows the problems and limits of this approach.

Team	Junk	JDs
ARB	11	6
LIV	7	6
HEA	7	6
STJ	7	6
COW	7	4
SRA	6	2
DEE	6	1
FRA	6	0
CLY	5	2
MOT	5	1
STE	4	0
CEL	2	2
HAM	2	1
RR	2	0
CB	2	0
DUM	1	1

It's lonely at the top. ARB may even be disappointed this week - they faced only one 30+% lineup.
The distribution is developing towards a bathtub curve. Most teams are by now either in the "get junk" or "get no junk" bucket.