Motherwell entered the weekend 3 points behind 1st placed ARB, with a head to head match to come. This was MOT's weekend to have both matches in front of the home support, so Fir Park would be rocking. A match against STJ would be the opener to the big match against ARB.

The match against St Johnstone started off well enough for the home side. A 5th minute goal for Joss Naylor was just the tone Motherwell were looking for, and Naylor then missed a chance to double the lead 4 minutes later. A painful random injury for midfielder Van Zandt left the midfielder getting subbed off just 10 minutes in. Despite the injury, MOT really should have taken more advantage of their dominance over the first 30 minutes, but they did at least get a second through youngster Billy Bland in the 36th minute. The odds were heavily weighed in Motherwell's direction as halftime came at 2-0. But, for the second time this season, the lead would not hold against STJ. Motherwell were left to rue their lack of finishing as the away side put in two second half goals and ended this one 2-2. Really should have done better, but the consolation was seeing that SRA had blown away ARB in a flurry of first half goals, winning that one an impressive 4-0 away to the league leaders.

This left the big match of the weekend as the big match. A win for either side would be huge - an away win would nearly seal the title for ARB, while a home win would put MOT top for the first time in weeks. And folks, the first half was not one to miss. And opening goal from Guy Clark just four minutes in would be canceled out mere seconds later by ARB's striker Norey. But, Clark was a man on a mission in this one. A headed goal to retake the lead in the 19th minute was followed by his 22 minute perfect hat-trick just minutes later. Take a bow, Mr. Clark! Not to be outdone, Ray Wylie Hubbard found some goals of his own, scoring a double in the 27th and 33rd minutes. And makeshift midfielder Joss Naylor capped off his big weekend with the final goal of this one just 36 minutes in. 6-1 to the home side after a dominant, 14-shot half. And a dull second half would follow, meaning this one would end at 6-1, and Motherwell move to one point clear at the top, right where they found themselves at the mid-season break.

It's a good theory, Dave, but I don't think it has held up in practice for MOT and ARB. I don't have time to fully explore it now, however, so I will get back to you later on it.

But, MOT have been top of the table for a large portion of this season. And below are the average SL %s that wr have faced while top:

68, 63, 61, 65, 75, 63, 67, 64

So, in the 8 matches where MOT have been top of the table, the worst lineup put out by the opposition was 61% of SL used. I can dig into ARB's numbers later, but that's not going to be close.

Motherwell find themselves in a title race in division one for the second or third time (depending if you could the less successful 2nd place finish in season 50 a true title race). How could the schedules affect the title race?

Motherwell should have the easier road by three metrics:

1. 4 matches at home vs 3 for ARB, including the big match between the two
2. No distraction of cup matches to eat up EL
3. An easier schedule, from a T-11 perspective (more below)

Motherwell finish up against STJ, ARB, fra, CLY, cel, and DUM (upper case are home matches) while Arbroath finish with SRA, mot, HEA, fra, DEE, cly. Only Clyde and Fraserburgh are in common between those schedules, so if we look at the other four matchups, Motherwell face 3rd, 9th, 11th, and 15th in T-11 in the division, while ARB face 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th. In theory that should provide an advantage.

However, we know that team selection will play more of a role than anything. In the past 7 matches, ARB have faced SL Used % of 46, 45, 44, 31, 38, 57, and 36% while MOT have faced 64, 70, 69, 56, 69, 48, and 66%. That's almost competely non-overlapping, and no difference in schedule is going to overcome that. If every team continues to play non-matches against ARB while playing their T-11 against MOT, then the title will be decided no matter what we do.

Motherwell started the weekend 6 points back of first placed ARB, still yet to play against each other in the second league phase. So, Motherwell knew that they needed to at least close that gap to 3 points to give themselves a chance of going top with a win over ARB the following weekend.

First up was a visit from middle of the table Hamilton for a South Lanarkshire derby. This one looked like it might be comfortable for the home side, as Hamilton had lined up with a very defensive lineup that would not likely resist a strong Motherwell attack. This seemed to be playing out as MOT went up 1-0 just 14 minutes in through winger Jimmie Dale Gilmore. However, from there, MOT inexplicably could not find many more shots. By the 60th minute they still had just 2 shots, just like last weekend, despite a >10% shot chance. But, this time, it would not affect the result. Despite stalling themselves, MOT were able to find a second and then a third late on to have this one finish 3-0. The failure to produce early shots mainly just caused MOT to have to spend more EL from top players than they would have liked to, but another 3 points secured and the captain's bonus were both more important than that.

As an added bonus, fans at Fir Park were treated to another celebration after the whistle as news filtered in of leaders ARB losing 0-1 at home to STE. This appeared to be some of the bad luck that MOT knows too well. While STE put out a decent side, it was nowhere near as good of a side as ARB's, as the 6-1 shot count showed. However, STE scored the only shot that mattered in this one as the lead at the top shrinks to 3 points.

Could Motherwell keep that momentum going? An away trip to Raith Rovers would be next, and RR put out their strongest side for the match. A tense first half was level and fairly even throughout, but just before the halftime whistle it was the visitors who took the lead, as Townes Van Zandt scored the opener after some nice pressing forced a turnover in a good position. Motherwell would look to defend that lead partway through the second half, but their resistance finally failed as RR leveled in the 71st minute. Would that be it, two more dropped points and an opportunity for ARB to regain a commanding lead at the top? No, young striker Guy Clark would be the hero on the day, scoring on a one-on-one chance with the keeper to take all three points back to Motherwell.

Big weekend for MOT, as they now find themselves going into next weekend needing 6 points home to STJ and home to ARB for a spot on top of the table on goal difference